When it comes to high-yield dividend stock investing, I prioritize several key factors: revenue-boosting growth, potential earnings growth, dividend growth, and a favorable valuation.
One of my current favorite ASX dividend stocks is GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG). Despite being priced as if its earnings are stagnant, I believe it presents an irresistible opportunity, combining various elements that could result in market-beating returns, particularly in terms of dividend yields.
Revenue-Boosting Growth
GQG, a US-based fund manager, offers various strategies, including US shares, international shares, global shares, and emerging market shares, with a focus on dividend shares. Its revenue is primarily derived from management fees, making funds under management (FUM) growth a crucial factor.
As of November 2023, ASX: GQG's FUM stood at US$112.6 billion, a 24% increase from US$90.7 billion in November 2022. The business experienced net inflows of US$9 billion in the first 11 months of 2023, driven by both new investor money and strong investment performance.
Potential Earnings Growth
Fund managers like GQG are highly scalable, with the cost of managing additional FUM being relatively low. This scalability allows a significant portion of additional revenue to translate into extra profit, potentially driving the share price higher.
The scalability factor, or operating leverage, could lead to faster growth in underlying net profit compared to revenue growth. Even if profit growth aligns with revenue growth, GQG's returns are expected to be more than satisfactory.
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Dividend Growth
GQG has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 90% of "distributable" earnings. As distributable profit grows, dividend growth is expected to directly follow suit. Commsec's projections indicate that GQG could offer an annual dividend of 14.5 cents per share in 2024, with a forward dividend yield of 8.8%. In 2025, the projected dividend per share is 15.7 cents, representing an 8.3% increase and a dividend yield of 9.6%.
Few ASX dividend stocks are anticipated to grow their dividends in the next two financial years with a dividend yield as substantial as GQG's.
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